Application of risk assessment methods to determine acceptable ice navigation conditions

The article presents a system of ice restrictions developed based on the experience of classification of ice-going ships. The presented ice restriction system is designed to determine the ability of a ship to navigate in certain ice conditions, depending on its ice class, based on a risk assessment and can be considered as an alternative to the POLARIS system proposed by IMO. Unlike the POLARIS system, the proposed system includes the ice classes of the Russian Maritime Register of Shipping, which eliminates discrimination and allows the use of ice classes of any classification societies, including the IACS classes and the Finnish-Swedish ice classes. The author relies on an approach that involves determining the risk parameters of ice navigation, in which the risk of ice damage is equal to or less than the risk value that occurs when sailing in the ice conditions allowed by the classification society, which are accepted as standard for this ice class of ship. The proposed system is regarded as intermediate between a system based on risk assessment and a methodology based on strength calculations implemented in ice passports, which are practiced by the CNIIMF and the Register. In the proposed system, the author has tried to use the advantages of both approaches, avoiding their disadvantages as much as possible. The purpose of the article is to present the developed system of ice restrictions for discussion and further verification of its adequacy both in real conditions and using simulation methods. The author hopes that the proposed system may be of interest to both shipowners and the NSR administration, and its application will avoid severe restrictions on ice navigation depending on the date and geographical area.

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