Prospects for the development of the tanker fleet for year-round navigation via the Northern Sea Route

In the context of changing arctic oil supply routes due to geopolitical factors, the importance of developing the Northern Sea Route as a year-round transportation artery has significantly increased. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of ice class and operational conditions of vessels on the economic performance of oil transportation via the Northern Sea Route. The research methods are based on mathematical modeling of the annual operation of tankers. The novelty of the study lies in the consideration of ice condition scenarios, as well as in the comparative analysis of transportation with and without transshipment. This article presents a model for the annual operation of ice-class tankers transporting oil to Asia, considering ice and navigational conditions, route characteristics, and vessel speed parameters. Based on the model, operating costs for oil transportation via the Northern Sea Route using tankers of all arctic ice classes, as well as conventional vessels via the Southern Sea Route, have been calculated. Capital costs for the construction of tankers, total installed power, and power consumption under various operating conditions have also been determined. All calculated values are derived from realistic input data, taking into account prospective changes in shipping. A comparative analysis of the calculation results showed that transportation with transshipment is generally more efficient for high ice-class vessels, increasing the number of cargo deliveries by Arc7 — Arc9 ice-class vessels by an average of 40 % under optimistic and baseline ice condition scenarios, and by 20 — 30 % under the pessimistic scenario. The obtained results can support decision-making on fleet replenishment and the selection of optimal oil transportation schemes under changing ice conditions in the Arctic.

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